This was shared by Pham Vu Hoang, deputy director general of the General Department of Population under the Ministry of Health, at the international policy consultation workshop on solutions to curb the trend of declining fertility, held on August 28 by the General Department of Population and Merck Healthcare Vietnam.

Late marriage and higher income lead to fewer children

At the workshop, Hoang stated that the national fertility rate is trending downward, falling below replacement level. The total fertility rate in 2023 was 1.96 children per woman, the lowest ever recorded, and it is forecast to continue decreasing in the coming years.

Statistical data show that educational attainment and economic status are associated with fertility levels.

Accordingly, the wealthiest group has an average fertility rate of 2 children, while the poorest group has a rate of 2.4. Those with average to fairly good living conditions have between 2.03 and 2.07 children.

Individuals with education below primary level have an average of 2.35 children, whereas those with education above high school have only 1.98 children.

“The reasons for the declining fertility rate include urbanization, economic development, pressure to find employment, housing issues, cost of living, and the rising expenses of raising and caring for children. In addition, infrastructure limitations—such as a lack of schools and high tuition and hospital fees—discourage people from having children.

Moreover, as living conditions improve, many people prefer to enjoy life, spending time and money on personal interests rather than having children,” Hoang said.

Hoang also pointed out a current reality: the average age at first marriage is increasing, indicating a trend toward later marriage. It has risen from 24.1 years in 1999 to 25.2 years in 2019.

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After four years, by 2023, the average age at first marriage had increased by another two years, reaching 27.2. For men, the average age at first marriage is 29.3, and for women, it is 25.1.

According to projections, with the fertility rate declining as sharply as it is now, Vietnam’s population will begin to experience negative growth by 2054, and the rate of population decline will continue to increase.

Low fertility is not unique to Vietnam

Speaking at the workshop, Professor Dr. Nguyen Thien Nhan, a member of the 15th National Assembly and former Deputy Prime Minister, noted that low fertility is not only an issue for Vietnam but for many countries around the world.

He also stated that to ensure sustainable population development, if each family is to have two children, then the income of a two-earner household must be sufficient to properly support four people. Working hours must also be short enough (8 hours per day, 40 hours per week) so that individuals have time to build relationships and take care of their families.

In addition, policies on housing and the educational environment are needed. At the same time, communication efforts should emphasize that having children is a sacred responsibility to the nation.

At the workshop, many international experts also shared insights related to low fertility rates. According to MSc. Natascha Braumann (Global Policy Director for the Reproductive, Cardiovascular, and Endocrine Business, Merck KGaA), research shows that policies affecting total fertility rates include childcare support, workplace policies, financial measures, and reproductive assistance.

In Europe, most Western European countries provide coverage for infertility treatment. In Asia, countries and territories such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan also cover part of the cost of infertility treatment. Direct financial support is considered one of the most important measures to help raise fertility to replacement levels.

Experts also emphasized that the Government needs to allocate budget resources to improve fertility rates. In reality, the policies currently implemented in Vietnam have not been truly effective.

For instance, the Program on Fertility Adjustment by Region and Target Groups to 2030, issued by the Government in 2020, has not achieved the expected results after four years of implementation. Fertility replacement levels have even continued to decline.

Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan also stressed that without breakthroughs in socio-economic policies and population policy, Vietnam’s fertility rate will continue to drop sharply, following the path of countries such as China, South Korea, and Japan.